Industry

Statistics Canada Sees Lower Canadian Oilseed Output

Statistics Canada released updated 2019 Canadian crop production estimates on Wednesday, August 28. In the release, the agency saw lower than expected soybean and canola output when compared with published trade expectations. According to the report, 2019 canola output is seen declining 9.3% from the 2018 crop to 18.453 million tonnes. According to estimates published by Reuters, the trade was looking for canola output to range between 18.3 million and 19.3 million tonnes with an average estimate of 18.9 million. Canada’s 2019 soybean crop was seen 14.6% year-over-year at 6.2 million tonnes. The trade had a relatively narrow range of ideas for soybeans, with guesses falling between 6.1 million tonnes at the low end and a largest guess of 6.6 million tonnes. The average of reported guesses was 6.3 million tonnes, so not much above the average of published guesses.

In general, Canadian farmers noted ongoing trade issues with China as driving reductions in canola plantings, while the decline in soybean output was seen driven by lower harvested area and yield ideas following planting delays in eastern Canada followed by hot, dry conditions throughout July. Nationally, yields are seen falling 5.4% from 2018 while the area harvested for grain is seen falling 9.7% from 2018. The map that follows was published by Agri-Food Canada and shows the percent of normal precipitation experienced in the 2019 Canadian growing season. The pockets of yellow and orange highlight areas with below-normal precipitation while the dark-green and blue areas represent regions that have seen above-average moisture this growing season. Fewer planted acres and mixed rains this growing season are expected to limit competition for U.S. oilseeds from our neighbors to the north in the year ahead.

Rob Hatchett

Senior Economist

Doane Advisory Services