The U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) released its monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report on April 9th. In the reports, the agency saw only minor adjustments to the U.S. balance sheet. Projected U.S. soybean imports were trimmed nearly 82,000 tonnes based on pace data from monthly Census Bureau data. On the demand side of its balance, the lone change was an increase in projected seed usage of roughly 54,000 tonnes. Net of all changes, USDA lowered projected U.S. soybean ending stocks by about 136,000 tonnes to 24.37 million tonnes.
Global soybean ending stocks were raised 190,000 tonnes from last month to a record 107.36 million metric tons (MMT). That was a minimal monthly adjustment. Carryover is now projected to rise 8.31 MMT from 2017-18, and that comparison narrows by 300,000 tonnes from last month. USDA added 500,000 tonnes to its Brazilian soybean crop estimate at 117.0 MMT. Brazil’s CONAB will release its latest forecast on Thursday, April 11thfrom last month’s forecast of 113.5 MMT. USDA left its Argentine soybean crop estimate at 55.0 MMT. There were no changes to any of the major China categories of production, imports or domestic use. There were few changes in the world export forecasts, with USDA steady month-to-month for its forecasts for the U.S., Argentina, Brazil and Paraguay. The chart that follows includes the USDA’s April WASDE forecasts and shows the recent trend for growth of world soybean supply, demand and ending stocks.
Beginning with the May release, USDA will make some minor adjustments to the format of the WASDE data. For the U.S., price range forecasts are to be converted to single price points for all crops and livestock forecasts. In addition, the international tables will include an aggregate value for “World less China” to represent balance sheets outside of China. The final change will eliminate outdated geo-political aggregations such as “Former Soviet Union” to better reflect current trade blocs.