As of June 1, no crop volume has transversed Lock 15 at the Quad Cities. Even in 1993, the average water level was below flood level at Lock and Dam 15. Upper Mississippi River and Illinois River crop volume is significantly below normal. With the St. Louis harbor threatening the 1993 high water level record, the barge restrictions of tow configurations being reduced to five barges and only daylight transits from the St. Louis to Cairo section of the Mississippi River will remain in place for the near future. The Ohio River and the lower Mississippi River is still pumping out significant crop volumes despite Cairo to the Gulf tow size being lowered from 40 to 25 barges.
Source: USGS and NOAA
The following chart indicates that the monthly average water level at Lock and Dam 15 or Quad Cities was at a record high, and the forecast makes June water levels being record high a very good bet. For farmers located in areas dependent on the upper Mississippi River and Illinois River for transportation, their crops are effectively not available to the export market. Obviously, for a farmer that needs to sell, this situation limits the number buyers available.
Another issue in the future is storage availability. Typically, a farmer will clear out space before the next harvest arrives. Because the primary export season has passed, even with a China / U.S. trade agreement, much of the crops currently in storage will remain into the next export season, which starts about the second week of September or well into harvest. Of course, having product on hand does create opportunity if a major crop failure occurs somewhere in the world, and the U.S. could quickly fill the void.
