A strengthening basis as the future price is increasing indicates strong consumption. For a cash price that has been diminished by reduced China exports, the basis moving towards the three-year average is a welcome development for U.S. soybean farmers. Once the St. Louis Port water levels return to normal levels, Coast Guard barge movement constraints that are hindering soybean exports will be removed, which will improve basis. Furthermore, with a very late planting season, the seasonal basis decline that occurs during harvest should not occur until mid-September.
Alan Barrett
Director of Research and Consulting
Higby Barrett LLC
Alan Barrett is the Director of Research and Consulting for HIgby Barrett LLC. He is an accomplished commodity economist with more than 25 years of experience in futures and cash markets with a focus on cotton, commodity projects, non-traditional agricultural products, transportation and supply chain studies. Alan spent six years as a commodity futures broker. His expertise encompasses feasibility studies of oilseed crushing plants (soybean canola, and cottonseed), grain elevators, export elevators, shuttle elevators, grain container operations, flourmills and other processing facilities. Alan also has conducted transportation supply chain studies for grains, oilseeds, fertilizer, coal, natural gas, crude oil, and petroleum products. Alan has considerable experience in non-traditional agricultural products such as coal, coke, natural gas, chemicals, hydraulic fracturing fluid, hydraulic fracturing proppants, glycerin, fertilizer, micronutrients, salt, limestone, cement, iron ore, pig iron, and steel, especially feed ingredients. Mr. Barrett has a BS and MS in Agricultural Economics from the University of Tennessee.
