Here in the United States, the groundhog may have seen its shadow indicating six more weeks of winter, but February 2021 was bright for the U.S. soybean complex. Prices continued to climb as harvest delays and quality in South America contributed to the central theme of supply tightness. Exports have slowed down as part of the normal seasonal pattern but remain on a record pace for MY 20/21, which was further validated when the U.S. Department of Agriculture (USDA) issued another upward revision to its export forecast in the February World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE). Of course, now is also the time of year when the focus shifts to what the new crop will look like. With the backdrop of tight supplies and high prices, the expectation is for the soybean area to approach 90 million acres in the U.S. for the first time since 2017. Purchase commitments for new crop soybeans are high – as open sales for new crop U.S. soybeans approach 5 million metric tonnes (~180 million bushels), more than ten times the volume of new crop commitments at this time last year. For more analysis of soybean markets during February, please enjoy this month’s U.S. Soy Market Intelligence Monthly.
