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WASDE Supply and Demand Update:December 2020

Mac Marshall

Mac Marshall

United Soybean Board and U.S. Soybean Export Council

Downward revisions on production and record crush lead to a tightening of inventories for U.S. Soy.

The U.S. Department of Agriculture’s monthly World Agricultural Supply and Demand Estimates (WASDE) report helps to provide a common, timely, and unbiased understanding of current agricultural conditions with a globally comprehensive look at key agricultural markets.

The U.S. Soybean Export Council’s webcast aims to provide a deep dive each month into the most recent WASDE. This month, Arlan Suderman, Chief Commodities Economist at StoneX Group Inc., joined USSEC CEO Jim Sutter and me to provide perspective on the December 2020 WASDE.

Each month, I determine key revisions to the soy complex from the WASDE. On the domestic side, the highest single month crush figure on record in the United States was revised by 2.7 million metric tons (MMT), bringing ending stocks to 4.8 MMT, approximately 14 days’ use, the lowest figure in the last 7 marketing years. Low stocks led to a bump in price. Prices for soybean meal and soybean oil also rose, along with exports of both.

On the international side, world ending stocks were also revised down, due in part to higher crush in Egypt and Pakistan. In Egypt, crush was revised upwards, a reflection of overall demand in that growing market. USDA also integrated additional detail on Algeria’s soybean complex, demonstrating that this market is an evolving center of demand. On the supply side, production in South America continues to bear monitoring as the growing season progresses; dryness in Argentina prompted another downward revision to Argentina’s projected 20/21 production.

U.S. soy exports continue to be very strong and long-term demand pace is outpacing 10-year trends.

 

“There were really very few changes to the soybean balance sheet, but the changes that were made spoke volume and set the stage for a volatile January report.”

-Arlan Suderman

During his segment, Suderman also examined crush, exports, and inventory levels. Additionally, he pointed out the tightness of world vegetable oil stocks, related to what he says is a push towards green energy and increased biodiesel usage in various countries.

For more insight, we present this month’s WASDE webcast and accompanying slides. To watch U.S. Soy’s December 2020 WASDE Update, click here.