Analyst John Baize breaks down the U.S. Department of Agriculture’s (USDA) World Agriculture Supply and Demand Estimate (WASDE) report that was released on August 12, 2019.
2018/19
- U.S. soybean crush was reduced by 20 million bushels to 2.065 billion bushels.
- U.S. soybean ending stocks were increased by 20 million bushels to 1.07 billion bushels
- U.S. soymeal exports were reduced from 12.61 million metric tons (MMT) to 12.29 MMT
- U.S. soymeal consumption was reduced from 32.48 MMT to 32.39 MMT
- U.S. soy oil consumption was reduced from 10.34 MMT to 10.25 MMT based on a 100,000 pound reduction in use for biodiesel production.
- Global soybean stocks on August 31, 2019 were increased from 112.98 MMT to 114.53 MMT.
- China’s soybean imports were reduced from 85 MMT to 83 MMT.
- Argentina’s soybean exports were reduced from 8.75 MMT to 7.75 MMT.
2019/20
- U.S. soybean planted area was reduced from 80 million acres to 76.7 million acres. Harvested soybean area was reduced from 79.3 million acres to 75.9 million acres
- U.S. soybean production was reduced from 3.845 billion bushels (104.64 MMT) to 3.38 billion bushels (100.16 MMT).
- U.S. soybean exports were reduced from 1.875 billion bushels (51.03 MMT) to 1.775 billion bushels (48.31 MMT) based on a smaller crop.
- U.S. soymeal exports were increased from 12.34 MMT to 12.43 MMT.
- U.S. soybean ending stocks were reduced from 795 million bushels (21.63 MMT) to 755 million bushels (20.54 MMT).
- China’s soybean imports were reduced from 87 MMT to 85 MMT based on African Swine Fever.
- Global soybean use was reduced from 355.06 MMT to 354.32 MMT.
- Global soybean imports were reduced from 150.82 MMT to 148.87 MMT.
- Global soymeal consumption was reduced from 237.9 MMT to 236.86 MMT.
- India’s soybean production in 2019 was reduced from 10.9 MMT to 10.3 MMT.
- Brazil’s soybean exports were increased from 76 MMT to 76.5 MMT, based on less competition from the U.S.
- Global soybean ending stocks on August 31, 2020 were reduced from 104.53 MMT to 101.74 MMT.
- EU rapeseed production was reduced from 18.7 MMT to 18 MMT. That would be down from 20.061 MMT in 2018 and 22.171 MMT in 1997.
- Global growth in soybean consumption in 2019/20 is forecasted at only 7.7 MMT, down from 8.13 MMT in 2018/19.
