Trade

Egyptian Demand for U.S. Soybeans Rising in 2019/20

Oilseeds and Products Annual 2019 report. The Post expects to see strong demand for U.S. soybeans, noted for yielding both high quality soybean meal, known for its higher protein content, and soybean oil. Egypt’s soybean import demand is expected to expand by 14.3 percent from the 2018/19 marketing year to reach in 4.0 million tonnes in 2019/20. The Post notes that domestic soybean plantings are expected to increase 11 percent from USDA’s latest official estimate of 2018/19 seedings to reach 10,000 hectares while higher-yielding varieties are expected to help push output further. The following chart shows the recent history of USDA’s official estimates and highlights Egypt’s reliance on soybean imports to help drive domestic consumption.

The outlook for growing soybean supplies is expected to be met with record demand in the 2019/20 marketing year. The Post sees 2018/19 consumption up nearly 3 percent compared to USDA’s official March estimate at 3.44 million tonnes. Demand is projected to grow 14 percent in the 2019/20 marketing year to reach a new record of 3.93 million tonnes. New crush facilities and expanding of existing crush rates are expected to be the key drivers in the marketing year ahead. The Post notes that historically, Egyptian soybean crush operates between 60 to 65 percent on their annual capacity. Two new crush facilities now dominate the processing industry combining to make up nearly 80 percent of the domestic total after expanding a combined 6,000 tonnes of new capacity to their facilities. The Post estimates that nearly 90 percent of domestic soybean meal consumption can be met by the domestic Egyptian processors in the 2018/19 marketing year. Expectations for expansion in key protein consuming industries such as poultry and aquaculture are expected to keep the Egyptian market a key market for U.S. soybeans in the upcoming marketing year.

Rob Hatchett
Rob Hatchett

Senior Economist

Farm Journal Media